Predicting advancing wavefronts of vampire bat rabies
Our latest set of analyses of data from the Ministry of Agriculture of Peru, together with our own questionnaire data, show that rabies continues to spread to the fringes of the vampire bat distribution in surprisingly constant and predictable wave-like expansions. The ability to forecast when and where rabies will appear next provides a tantalizing opportunity to develop interventions like vaccination of humans and livestock (or perhaps even the bats themselves) before rabies arrives to new regions. Hopefully this puts us one step closer to preventative rather than reactive management of vampire bat rabies.
The paper is published free online at Proceedings of the Royal Society B.
Julio and I also wrote a short piece in The Conversation describing the results of this analysis against a broader context of vampire bat rabies in Latin America.
Benavides, J., Valderrama, W., & Streicker, D.G. Spatial expansions and travelling waves of rabies in vampire bats (2016) Proceedings of the Royal Society B. DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2016.0328