Genetic forecasting of male-driven invasions of vampire bat rabies
Pathogen invasions across landscapes are increasingly common. From Zika and Ebola viruses in humans to White nose syndrome and Chytrid fungus in wildlife, these invasions have profound importance, but are notoriously difficult to predict. We recently showed that rabies virus – long considered an endemic virus of vampire bats – is actually an emerging virus, spreading across landscapes in highly predictable wavefronts and causing major losses to livestock and human health as the virus hits large, historically rabies-free bat populations. In our current paper, now out in PNAS, we use genetic data from vampire bats and rabies viruses to show that these invasions are likely driven by the dispersal of highly mobile male bats, not by more sedentary females. Moreover, genetic inferences of bat population structure provided a roadmap of how rabies could spread across the landscape through patterns of bat movement. This viral invasion forecast was validated by an independent dataset on livestock rabies mortality. If invasions continue at the rates and trajectories that we predict, vampire bat rabies could invade the Pacific coast of South America for the first time in recorded history as soon as 2020, which would have serious implications for livestock management practices across several countries. Now work is needed to assess the value of rabies control strategies that target male bats and to figure out what triggers invasions to new populations in the first place. Stay tuned.
Some nice press on this paper from:
Streicker, D.G., Winternitz, J., Satterfield, D., Condori-Condori, R.E., Broos, A., Tello, C., Recuenco, S., Velasco-Villa, A., Altizer, S., Valderrama, W. Host-pathogen evolutionary signatures reveal dynamics and future invasions of vampire bat rabies (2016) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the USA DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1606587113